Pakistan and the US - how much longer?
I am obviously an interested party in this development. Pervez Musharraf has apparently decided that he will not impose anemergency according to The Economist, Reuters, the BBC and CNN.
Really? Just because he gave them his word? Or because some aide said 'there was never such a plan! We don't know how such a rumor got started'! How many assurances has MUshy given to the US in the past? And how many of those assurance have been proven to be lies?
Let us go back to before the time he staged his coup. He was guilty of conducting a de facto war with India (Kargil) while not informing his superior - then PM Nawaz Sharief. It was the US that found out about it, told the PM as well as appealed to India's then PM A B Vajpayee to not escalate this into an outright war.
Then we had 9/11. Of course, Pakistan did not have anything to directly connect then with the incident. But entire support structure for the incident - the Taliban, their arming, their training etc - was done courtesy of Mushy and his pet department - the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence) - Pakistan's equivalent of the CIA. And guess who was responsible for the Kargil war in the first place? The ISI of course!
After being co-opted by the US into its 'war on terror' (you are either with us or against us), Mushy found it very convenient to keep the status quo for as long as he could. He delivered 'kills' whenever there was news that the US was tiring of Pakistan's two-facedness.
Which leads me to a more interesting query. Where is Osama bin Laden? It is my guess that he is safely ensconced in a part of Pakistan (not Afghanistan) in a location unknown to Mushy (so he can technically be telling the truth), while always being knowable. He is the insurance card for Musharraf. If OBL and Ayman al Zawahiri are captured, the US will lose interest in Pakistan and the current funding that Pakistan receives from the US (numbers from armscontrol.org and worldpolicy.org) is comparable to the 1.8 billion that the US gives annually to Israel and Egypt for having signed a peace treaty. What? Over a billion annually to FIGHT? What does tha make the Pakistani soldiers? I'll give you a hint - mercenaries. Except that, in this case, their master is taking in the loot while they are dying in the field. But I digress.
The whole point is, if OBL and AAZ are found, Mushy suddenly stops being able to take cookies! And everyone else in his support structure suffers too.
Now what about the US? It is my personal belief that the US government knows the exact whereabouts of OBL and AAZ. Heck, I can put my personal beliefs on this blog - it is mine and I can do pretty much what I want with it. What is the rationale for Bush not bombing him to oblivion? A few possibilities come to mind. Before 2004, he wanted to get reelected. Now he wants to (in his disconnected universe) try and ensure that the Republican party stays in power and at least some of his policies are continued. This is admittedly a weak argument for a conspiracy theory. But consider the contrary side. If OBL and/or AAZ were to be captured, the Republican party current leader - Giuliani - will no longer be able to say 'vote for us if you want to feel safe - vote Democratic if you want to be attacked by terrorists'. This is what got Bushy reelected.
Enough of the digressions. So how are we to believe that Mushy is not going to declare an emergency? No idea. And, if you want to listen to me, you should really not believe anything that a snake says either.
I am obviously an interested party in this development. Pervez Musharraf has apparently decided that he will not impose anemergency according to The Economist, Reuters, the BBC and CNN.
Really? Just because he gave them his word? Or because some aide said 'there was never such a plan! We don't know how such a rumor got started'! How many assurances has MUshy given to the US in the past? And how many of those assurance have been proven to be lies?
Let us go back to before the time he staged his coup. He was guilty of conducting a de facto war with India (Kargil) while not informing his superior - then PM Nawaz Sharief. It was the US that found out about it, told the PM as well as appealed to India's then PM A B Vajpayee to not escalate this into an outright war.
Then we had 9/11. Of course, Pakistan did not have anything to directly connect then with the incident. But entire support structure for the incident - the Taliban, their arming, their training etc - was done courtesy of Mushy and his pet department - the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence) - Pakistan's equivalent of the CIA. And guess who was responsible for the Kargil war in the first place? The ISI of course!
After being co-opted by the US into its 'war on terror' (you are either with us or against us), Mushy found it very convenient to keep the status quo for as long as he could. He delivered 'kills' whenever there was news that the US was tiring of Pakistan's two-facedness.
Which leads me to a more interesting query. Where is Osama bin Laden? It is my guess that he is safely ensconced in a part of Pakistan (not Afghanistan) in a location unknown to Mushy (so he can technically be telling the truth), while always being knowable. He is the insurance card for Musharraf. If OBL and Ayman al Zawahiri are captured, the US will lose interest in Pakistan and the current funding that Pakistan receives from the US (numbers from armscontrol.org and worldpolicy.org) is comparable to the 1.8 billion that the US gives annually to Israel and Egypt for having signed a peace treaty. What? Over a billion annually to FIGHT? What does tha make the Pakistani soldiers? I'll give you a hint - mercenaries. Except that, in this case, their master is taking in the loot while they are dying in the field. But I digress.
The whole point is, if OBL and AAZ are found, Mushy suddenly stops being able to take cookies! And everyone else in his support structure suffers too.
Now what about the US? It is my personal belief that the US government knows the exact whereabouts of OBL and AAZ. Heck, I can put my personal beliefs on this blog - it is mine and I can do pretty much what I want with it. What is the rationale for Bush not bombing him to oblivion? A few possibilities come to mind. Before 2004, he wanted to get reelected. Now he wants to (in his disconnected universe) try and ensure that the Republican party stays in power and at least some of his policies are continued. This is admittedly a weak argument for a conspiracy theory. But consider the contrary side. If OBL and/or AAZ were to be captured, the Republican party current leader - Giuliani - will no longer be able to say 'vote for us if you want to feel safe - vote Democratic if you want to be attacked by terrorists'. This is what got Bushy reelected.
Enough of the digressions. So how are we to believe that Mushy is not going to declare an emergency? No idea. And, if you want to listen to me, you should really not believe anything that a snake says either.
posted by Indian© at 12:28 PM
1 Comments:
This post of yours made sense to me except at a few points. The statement pertaining to Guiliani went entirely above my head! I agree that Bush knows where OBL is, and I don't think Mush doesn't. After all, does he not shelter other terrorists and brigands like DI?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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